WASHINGTON — The head of NASA says he expects China to perform a crewed flight around the moon in 2027, ratcheting up perceptions of a space race between China and the United States.
In a May 19 keynote at the ASCEND conference here, Jared Isaacman warned a space industry audience that the next people to fly around the moon would be Chinese.
“The next time the world tunes in to watch astronauts fly around the moon, which will likely be sometime in 2027, they will be taikonauts, and America will no longer be the exclusive power to send humans into the lunar environment,” he said.
While Isaacman has frequently discussed a race with China to be the next to land humans on the moon, this was one of the first times he predicted a 2027 Chinese crewed circumlunar mission. He repeated the comments later in the day at an industry reception.
China has not publicly announced plans for such a mission, which, as Isaacman described it, would likely be similar to NASA’s Artemis 2 mission in April. There have been rumors of a mission along those lines, though, and an expectation of a roadmap of missions leading to a Chinese crewed landing by the end of the decade.
So far, all the crewed missions to fly around, orbit or land on the moon have been flown by NASA: nine Apollo missions from 1968 to 1972 and Artemis 2. All the astronauts on those missions have been Americans except for Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen on Artemis 2.
Isaacman has used the threat that China could land astronauts on the moon before NASA returns there as a rationale for revamping the Artemis lunar exploration program. In February, he announced that Artemis 3, which was to be a lunar landing attempt in 2028, will instead be a test flight in low Earth orbit in 2027, followed by a landing on Artemis 4 in 2028.
In March, he changed other elements of Artemis at the agency’s Ignition event, including effectively canceling the lunar Gateway to focus resources instead on a lunar base, while calling for a much higher cadence of robotic lander missions.
“Now we find ourselves with a real geopolitical rival challenging American leadership in the high ground of space,” he said at Ignition, referring to China. “NASA has stated we will return Americans to the moon before the end of President Trump’s term. Our great competitor said before 2030. The difference between success and failure will be measured in months, not years. They may be early, and recent history suggests we might be late.”
At a House appropriations subcommittee hearing April 27, Isaacman argued that, before the recent changes to Artemis, China was in the lead in landing humans on the moon. “Up until a few months ago, the odds were in their favor for it to happen before America returns,” he said. “We have a far more achievable plan now.”
The Chinese, he said, “are just like we were in the ’60s” with a clear objective and moving quickly. “We have a path to do this right now, but it is going to be extremely close, and I can’t emphasize that enough.”
That argument has resonated with members of Congress. Days after that hearing, the Commerce, Justice and Science appropriations subcommittee approved a spending bill for fiscal year 2027 that provided more funding for exploration than requested by the administration while partially eliminating cuts elsewhere at the agency.
“Our chore in this environment is oversight and budgetary, but we’re also your big cheerleader and we want you to succeed,” the subcommittee’s chairman, Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., said after Isaacman discussed that race with China.
Andrew Jones contributed to this article.
