WASHINGTON, D.C., May 18, 2026 — The Commercial Space Federation (CSF), in partnership with Rational Futures (RF), announced the release of SCRUBBED: America’s Launch Capacity Challenge, a data-driven assessment of potential U.S. launch demand and challenges at existing spaceports and launch infrastructure. With over 180 launches from U.S. soil in 2025, launch capacity at existing launch sites is already strained by licensing, facilities, and government processes on the ground. Accompanying the report, CSF makes recommendations to improve U.S. launch infrastructure to meet this growing demand.
The report will be briefed on Tuesday, May 19, at the CSF Space Policy Summit at ASCEND, with the full public release on Tuesday, May 26..
Authored by Rational Futures — whose team includes former NASA Chief Economist Dr. Akhil Rao, former NASA Senior Policy Advisor Dr. Tom Colvin, and other veterans of the public and private space sectors — the report draws on Federal Communications Commission regulatory filings, government budget data, and orbital mechanics modeling to construct three demand scenarios and assess launch capacity for each.
As CSF president Dave Cavossa noted, “This report and its findings come at an important time as the Trump Administration is considering a refresh of the National Space Transportation Policy and a dramatic increase in investment in U.S. commercial launch infrastructure”.
Key Findings
With over 180 launches from U.S. soil in 2025 already straining existing infrastructure, the report finds that capacity pressures will worsen significantly depending on which satellite constellations materialize:
- Potentially 7,000 launches per year needed, with variables including constellation readiness and launch license/permit caps.
- Demand for 6,000 to as many as 230,000 satellites launched per year depending on multiple variables/scenarios.
- Vertically integrated or “launcher operated constellations” could saturate ultra/heavy launch capacity, driving other customers to medium or smaller vehicles.
- There are not enough licensed launches for some types of launch vehicles to meet satellite operator demand in the 2030 timeframe.
- Current spaceports can handle a majority of the increased launch cadence, but multiple process, procedures, sharing, and security issues may cause bottlenecks and slow down our ability to meet launch demand.
- New and non-traditional launch sites might be able to increase launch capacity and resilience, but they would require Government support, because the market alone is unlikely to provide them.
Path Forward
The report identifies two categories of potential actions — neither of which involves waiting for market forces alone to solve the problem:
- For traditional launch sites like Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, the primary barrier is coordination. The report details options including a central management authority to handle zoning, infrastructure investment, scheduling of shared resources, and reduction of evacuation zones through improved methane explosive analysis.
- For non-traditional and inland spaceports, infrastructure costs of roughly $200 million per site for 10–20 annual orbital launches are unlikely to be funded by the market without federal support. Options include improved flight safety tools, dynamic airspace management, updated overflight regulations, and anchor tenancy or direct capital funding from the federal government.
Availability & Interviews
To schedule an interview or request an advance embargoed copy, contact Dave Cavossa, dave@commercialspace.org
The full report will be publicly available at www.commercialspace.org on May 26, 2026.
About the Commercial Space Federation
The Commercial Space Federation (CSF) is the leading trade association representing the commercial space industry. We serve as the industry’s voice to policymakers in the U.S. government, international governments and organizations, the media, and the public, advocating for policies that support growth and innovation in the space economy. CSF’s members comprise multiple sectors of the commercial space industrial base including launch and reentry, remote sensing, spaceports, in-space research and manufacturing, space communications, commercial space stations, and other new space capabilities. CSF and its members are focused on expanding America’s leadership in space by offering innovative and less expensive solutions to U.S. government customers including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Space Force, and the intelligence community. In addition, CSF advocates for policies that will provide services to the American public and grow a sustainable space economy. For more information, please visit https://commercialspace.org/.
About Rational Futures
Rational Futures combines space technology expertise with world-class economic modeling to deliver evidence-based insights for clients committed to building a prosperous future. Our team of multidisciplinary experts have backgrounds at NASA, Voyager Space, RAND, the Science and Technology Policy Institute, and academia. We assess emerging technologies, markets, and policies through cost-benefit analysis, risk and valuation modeling, market sizing, investment tracking, and policy evaluation to inform our clients’ resource allocations and strategic decisions. Learn more at www.rationalfutures.com.
